AT CWU, PERRY WARNS OF GROWING NORTH KOREAN THREAT

April 20, 2005

Contact: Robert Lowery (509-963-1487/fax 509-963-2301/e-mail: loweryr@cwu.edu

ELLENSBURG, Wash. - Because of the U.S. preoccupation with winning the war on terror and establishing an outpost of democracy in Iraq, it may be overlooking a more imminent national security problem with North Korea's assertion that it is now a nuclear power.

That's the conclusion of former U.S. Defense Secretary William J. Perry, who was in Korea last week, "where I was evaluating our prospects for getting resolution to that problem," he said.

"The greatest danger in the on-going crisis with North Korea is that it has the potential for erupting into war," Perry added. "If that tragedy were to occur, the casualties on all sides would make those in Iraq seem small by comparison. Even though the probability of such a war - happily - is low, we must pay careful attention to it because of the terrible consequences."

Perry shared his views yesterday (Wednesday, April 20) during a speech, titled "Korea and the Brink(s) of War," at Central Washington University.

Perry was the 19th U.S. secretary of defense, serving from February 1994 to January 1997 in the Clinton Administration. He discussed the current crisis in light of what he termed the "uneasy peace" that has been in place since the Korean War ended in a stalemate five decades ago.

"Ever since the armistice, the North Koreans have stated that their primary objective was to reunify Korea and that they were prepared to use force do to so," Perry noted. "To make this threat credible, they maintain an army of 1 million men - twice the size of the U.S. Army. Two-thirds of them are based near the DMZ (demilitarized zone), positioned to launch, what the military calls, a 'short-warning attack.'"

To put the size of the North Korean military in perspective, Perry pointed out the country has a total population of just 22-million people, while it's also a nation that's close to economic collapse and widespread famine.

In 1994, on his watch as defense secretary, Perry recalled that relations between the U.S. and North Korea were at such a strained state that, "This was the only time that I believe we came close to a major conflict," he said.

At issue was North Korea's reprocessing of nuclear fuel from a reactor in Yongbyon into weapons-grade material. The U.S., Japan and South Korea announced intentions to impose severe sanctions on North Korea if it continued. North Korea responded that such sanctions would constitute an act of war.

Perry took the threat seriously; considering and developing several military options. President Clinton came within hours of authorizing the deployment of troops to South Korea and evacuating non-essential U.S. personnel from the country, Perry recalled.

"In fact, I was literally in the Cabinet room, briefing the president on the reinforcement plan, when the call from Pyongyang (North Korea's capital) came through to the White House," he added. "He received word that (North Korean leader) Kim Il Sung was ready to freeze activity at Yongbyon and begin serious negotiations."

Ironically, Kim died on the eve of those talks. Nevertheless, they still yielded the "Agreed Framework," which required a freeze on activities at the North Korean nuclear reactor in exchange for two new commercial reactors, based on a design less capable of weapons production, along with U.S.-supplied fuel oil to provide for power lost through the shutdown of the weapons reactor.

Even so, "We always understood the crisis had been postponed, not resolved," Perry stated.

Current tensions date back to 1998, when North Korea began developing middle- and long-range missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and the 2002 discovery that the country had initiated a covert nuclear weapons program.

"I cannot really know what is going on in the mind of Kim Jung Il (North Korea's leader)," Perry acknowledged. "But I can speculate that he may believe that North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons may be needed to head off a preemptive attack by the United States. Indeed, North Korean officials have made just such a statement to me."

However, another possible reason for the country's nuclear weapons push may have nothing to do with their security, but the country's economy instead. And that may pose the biggest risk to the U.S.

"We know that non-state actors like al-Qaida are actively seeking nuclear weapons," Perry said. "Since al-Qaida is not likely to be able to build a nuclear bomb from scratch, they are trying to obtain the bomb, or perhaps the fissile material, from a nuclear power. So there is a ready market. And North Korea, which is in desperate economic straits, has already announced its intention to sell some of its nuclear material."

To defuse the present situation, Perry recommended the U.S., through six-party talks also involving North and South Korea, China, Japan and Russia, first attempt a renewal of serious diplomacy.

"But if diplomacy fails, the United States must apply unrelenting economic, political and - if necessary - military pressure to contain and reverse North Korea’s push to a nuclear state," he added. "If we cannot stop North Korea, we are doomed to a world in which nuclear weapons spread around the globe, with an ever-increasing danger of a nuclear detonation in one of our cities."

Perry's free, public presentation was part of the CWU Presidential Speaker Series. The 2004-05 series is centered around the theme "America on the World Stage." Central President Jerilyn S. McIntyre established the series in 2002 to provide an additional source of intellectual stimulation on the Ellensburg campus.