It looks as if the most recent recession ended in late 2001 or early 2002, because there now have been four consecutive quarters of growth in gross domestic product, something never seen during a recession, he said. Auto sales and real estate sales also have done well on the strength of low interest rates, he said.

“This is a recession with happy Realtors,” Mitchell said.

The tone of looking at positive indicators in a turbulent economic time was identical to last year’s Economic Outlook Conference keynote address, also by Mitchell. That took place about six weeks after Sept. 11, a day that still is affecting the U.S. economy.

“We have to worry and think about things that we didn’t worry about before,” Mitchell said. “That’s a shock to the system.”

And it’s only one in a series of shocks, he said. Among the others were the market decline prior to Sept. 11, worries about war and a breach of faith brought on by corporate scandals.

“You’ve all heard people say, ‘Well, I’m not going to put money in the stock market now. I don’t trust them,’” Mitchell said. “That’s a problem.”

But it’s not the first time the economy has suffered, and there are several factors working in favor of the United States, he said. For one, inflation has been kept low. Also the government’s expansionary fiscal policy has spurred some recovery. Most important, though, may be history, he said.

“Remember, every recession in American history has ended — a trivial point, but an important one I think,” Mitchell said.

When there are good economic times, people tend to think it’s the norm and forget there are business cycles involved, he said. A lot of people younger than 30 have no recollection of a business cycle in their lifetimes, he said.

“For a lot of people, what we are seeing today is a new experience,” Mitchell said.

There remains uncertainty, but there are plenty of good signs to go with the bad, he said, repeatedly putting things in perspective.

“I suspect we will grow a little bit faster this year,” Mitchell said. “It’s going to be a subdued upturn from what, in a historical sense, was a modest recession.”